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New
Estimations Bring HIV/AIDS Estimates to 1.1 Million
Better counting has led scientists to believe that the 39,400 new
incidents of HIV/AIDS estimated in 2006 are actually closer to
56,000 new infections, and the total number of Americans infected
with the AIDS virus is nearly 1.1 million.
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Since
the beginning of the AIDS epidemic, it has been difficult to
truly estimate the number of new cases each year due to the fact
that symptoms may not appear until many years after the original
infection. For this study, researchers compared results with the
number of HIV incidences for 1977-2006 based on HIV diagnoses
from 40 different states and the number of AIDS diagnoses from
all 50 states. The researchers of this particular study estimate
that these reports have drastically under-estimated the number
of new HIV/AIDS incidents in America.
The study by the CDC estimated new incident numbers based on
three parameters:
1- “The
probability that an individual is diagnosed with AIDS in that
year, given that he or she was AIDS-free at the beginning of the
year
2- The
HIV testing rate by year in infected individuals prior to AIDS
diagnosis
3- The
number of HIV infections by year”
Using these parameters, the estimated number of new infections
in 2006 rose from 39,400 to 56,300. That is equivalent to 22 new
HIV cases for every 100,000 Americans.
The study also found that of the 1.1 million infected
individuals, 48% were among men who engage in sex with other
men, and 27.6% were among individuals behaving in “high risk
heterosexual contact,” (e.g., injection drug use). Black
individuals only make up 12% of the overall populations, but
they make up 46% of those infected with HIV/AIDS while whites
made up 35% and the Hispanic population made up only 17%. (1),
(2)
1
Estimation of HIV Incidence in the United States, Journal of
the American Medical Association, Vol. 300, No. 5, August 6, 2008,
pp. 520-529.
2 HIV
Prevalence Estimates – United States, 2006, MMWR Weekly Report, 57
(39); October 3, 2008, pp. 1073-1076
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